The Economic Impacts of Reallocating High-Band Spectrum to 5G in the United States Authors: David W. Sosa, Ph.D. 415 263 2217 |
[email protected] Greg Rafert, Ph.D. 720 963 5317 |
[email protected] April 2019 Dr. Sosa is a Principal and Dr. Rafert is a Vice President at Analysis Group, Inc. Financial support for this research was provided by CTIA. Responsibility for any errors or omissions rests with the authors. Analysis Group Summary of Key Findings The next generation of wireless technology (5G) represents a significant leap forward in mobile communications, promising substantial increases in data speed, service quality, and network capacity. This new technology will rely on a much wider range of spectrum than current 4G LTE networks. To achieve this significant leap forward, two things need to happen: policymakers must reallocate spectrum for 5G uses and service providers will need to, as they have begun to do, invest hundreds of billions of dollars in new infrastructure. This study examines the economic impacts of reallocating 12.55 GHz of licensed high-band spectrum for 5G networks. We conclude that wireless providers will invest in excess of $42 billion on infrastructure to deliver 5G services using this high-band spectrum over a seven-year buildout period. This high-band spectrum buildout will result in: $75 billion in additional GDP. 364,000 new jobs, accounting for both direct and spillover effects. U.S. Policymakers: 12.55 GHz of High-band Spectrum Wireless Providers: $42 B Buildout CAPEX Economic Impact: $75 B in GDP Growth 364 K New Jobs 7 Year Buildout Horizon PAGE 1 Analysis Group I. Background on 5G and High-Band Spectrum Wireless communication services, such as voice, messaging, internet, and video, have become a critical component of most economic activity and indispensable in our personal and professional lives. This prominence has been achieved through considerable advances in mobile communications capabilities and service quality with each successive generation of network technology, from analog 1G service in the 1980s through the current 4G LTE generation of technology. 5G wireless networks promise substantial improvements in data speeds (up to 100 times faster than current LTE), single digit (millisecond) latency, and a significant increase in the number of wirelessly-connected devices (capacity), compared to current 4G LTE networks.1 These improvements are expected to enable or enhance numerous use cases, including autonomous vehicles, the industrial Internet of Things, and telemedicine. 5G will enable these improvements because it is designed to exploit not only low-band spectrum, which historically has been used for mobile voice and data services, but also mid- and high-band spectrum, capitalizing on the propagation characteristics of the different spectrum bands. By leveraging the bandwidth availability and propagation characteristics at higher frequencies (above 24 GHz), high-band spectrum will enable very high data speeds and capacity (i.e., the ability to accommodate a large number of connected devices), and is thus a vital component for 5G services. Due to the shorter wavelength, high-band spectrum is often referred to as “millimeter wave.” Although the properties of high-band waves will enable very fast data speeds, low latency, and considerable device-capacity, the propagation characteristics of millimeter waves will necessitate dense cell tower networks to provide coverage for a given area. For these reasons, the high-band will be most efficient in dense urban areas as well as in facilities where large groups of people frequently gather, such as in sports stadiums.2 Unlike prior generations of wireless networks such as 3G and 4G, the benefits of 5G will be achieved through complementary relationships between low-, mid-, and high-band spectrum. In particular, the United States’ large landmass and range of population densities will require leveraging the complementarity nature of the different bands to deliver a 5G experience. Constrained supply of spectrum in any of the three spectrum ranges could jeopardize U.S. 5G leadership. In this white paper, we estimate the economic impacts associated with the deployment of 12.55 GHz of high-band spectrum, specifically in bands in the 24 to 50 GHz bands that policymakers are considering for commercial wireless use. (See Table 1 below.) These economic impacts derive from the infrastructure that will be deployed w